Zambia’s Opposition Stumbles into Election Quagmire

The death of former President Edgar Lungu has created a power vacuum in Zambia’s opposition, threatening to splinter the coalition and undermine its chances against incumbent Hakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND). The August 13 general election will be a test of whether Lungu’s legacy can hold the opposition together or if his departure has exposed deep divisions that will ultimately benefit the ruling party.

Lungu was the unifying force behind the Patriotic Front (PF) and its faction within the Tonse Alliance. His influence extended beyond his own party to unite disparate opposition groups around a shared vision for Zambia’s future. With Lungu gone, competing claims have emerged over who should lead the coalition, now rebranded as the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance.

The endorsement of Brian Mundubile as the alliance’s 2026 presidential candidate has sparked controversy within the opposition ranks. While some see Mundubile as a natural successor to Lungu’s legacy, others argue that his selection is an attempt by Hichilema to co-opt the opposition and neutralize its challenge. The appointment of Makebi Zulu, Lungu’s lawyer, as Mundubile’s running mate has added fuel to the fire, raising questions about the coalition’s commitment to genuine opposition.

Despite these divisions, analysts argue that Lungu’s influence remains significant in Zambia’s opposition politics. His name may no longer appear on the ballot, but his legacy continues to shape how many Zambians vote on August 13. The contest over his legacy is a battle for voters’ loyalty, with several candidates appealing to the same support base by presenting themselves as heirs to Lungu’s vision.

The Copperbelt region, Zambia’s mining heartland and one of its most competitive electoral battlegrounds, remains a crucial testing ground for Lungu’s influence. His absence has left a void in the opposition, particularly within the PF, where he was the glue that held the party together. Young leaders like Agness Tembo warn that a fragmented opposition could weaken Zambia’s multiparty democracy and embolden the ruling party.

However, not all voters are convinced that personalities will decide this election. Many are more concerned about their daily lives – jobs, cost of living, mining, electricity, roads, and prices of goods and services – than about who succeeds Lungu as leader. For PF supporters, his absence remains deeply felt, making it difficult to find someone with the same influence.

Zambia’s opposition faces a challenge seen elsewhere in Southern Africa: parties have struggled after losing dominant leaders, leading to fragmentation and decreased competitiveness. In Zimbabwe, opposition politics became increasingly fragmented following Morgan Tsvangirai’s death in 2018, while leadership transitions in other countries have tested the ability of parties to remain united.

Zambia’s election this year will show whether opposition parties can broaden their appeal beyond one influential political figure. The contest over Lungu’s legacy has exposed deep divisions within the coalition, but it also presents an opportunity for opposition leaders to demonstrate their ability to adapt and evolve without their dominant leader. Analysts point out that the battle for voters’ loyalty is far from over, and Zambia’s opposition will need all its wits about it to succeed.

In reality, Lungu’s influence may not be as transferable as initially thought. While his legacy remains a powerful force, it also creates a void that can only be filled by authentic leadership and a genuine commitment to opposition politics. On August 13, Zambians will have their say on whether the opposition has what it takes to fill this vacuum and offer a credible alternative to Hichilema’s UPND.