Canadians Cutting Ties: The Unsettling Trend in US-Canada Business Travel

Data from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities reveals a 42% year-over-year decline in Canadian visits to major metropolitan areas, with no signs of recovery. This dip is not limited to cities like Las Vegas and Orlando, which rely heavily on international visitors for their economies. Industrial and financial centers such as Dallas and Grand Rapids are also experiencing the downturn.

These areas are significant because they have substantial connections to Canadian business. Scotiabank’s regional headquarters in Dallas, for example, highlights the importance of maintaining strong relationships between the two nations. Similarly, Grand Rapids’ sister city status with Vaughan, Ontario, underscores the economic ties that bind them together.

The decline in Canadian travel is more complex than a simple drop in tourist numbers. According to Karen Chapple, coauthor of the University of Toronto analysis, much of it can be attributed to Canadians boycotting American goods due to President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and his assertion that Canada should be the 51st state. A recent Politico poll found that 58% of Canadians believe the US is not a reliable ally, while nearly 80% think Trump has made the relationship weaker.

Business travel represents about 20% of total travel to the US but accounts for about 60% of air and lodging revenue. A decrease in business travelers could have a devastating impact on industries reliant on international visitors. Canadian government data indicates that U.S. establishments with significant Canadian visitor traffic saw around 6% fewer employees by mid-2025.

However, Canadians continue to invest in US assets – they poured $59.9 billion CAD ($43.3 billion USD) into net purchases of US equities and debt between January and May 2025. While this might mitigate some economic impact, Chapple’s warning is clear: fewer Canadian visitors could be a harbinger of more significant economic pullback from one of the US’s key historical allies.

As tensions escalate and trust falters, it’s imperative for leaders on both sides to address these concerns head-on rather than dismissing them as mere blips on the radar. The future of this crucial relationship depends on it.